why are cbet opportunities so low

[rowhousepd]

I'm trying to see how often I Cbet the flop out of how many opportunities I have ... but something seem awry.

I did this with the simple filter; out of 10k hands at the limit I'm looking at now, apparently there are only about 350 total opportunities. Keep in mind that I'm a somewhat Tight-Agr/Arg player (19 VP$P, 9 PFR, and 3.5 AF), so I was surprised to see how few there were.

Though I know it's a very good stat for looking at your own leaks, I'm asking here mostly because of how I'd specifically use this on the HUD. With say 300 hands played against someone (which I consider enough hands to at least start getting a sense of some of their betting habits), that means I'm often seeing the flop cbets % based on maybe 10 hands. This just doesn't seem right. Maybe I'm missing something here, wouldn't you need to have a sh*tload of hands on a opponent before the flop cbet stat actually becomes relevant?!? I know a lot of people out there have that stat on their HUD, but how it is even meaningful for looking at most villains you encounter?

[kraada]

Well, think about it like this: you only raise preflop 9% of the time. Out of 10,000 hands that's only 900 preflop raises. Of these preflop raises, sometimes you will be 3-bet and will fold. Say you get 3-bet 4% of the time (roughly JJ+, AK), that's 36 times you get 3-bet. Considering that most of the time you 4-bet stacks are going to get in preflop, let's say we're down to 864 opportunities. Now the question is how many times you get flat called, and how many times everyone folds. If everyone folds, say, 40% of the time, that's 346 times that you just pick up the blinds. That leaves you with 518 flops. Sometimes your opponents are going to donkbet into you. If that's a bit high at 10%, we're down to 467 opportunities.

It's not quite 300, but I'm sure you can see how to tweak it to get there fairly easily. 300 does seem low to me, but it certainly isn't that far out there. If you have table of people who fold too much to preflop raises, or tables that like to bet right out into the preflop raiser, you could certainly end up with those sorts of values.

[rowhousepd]

Huh, I see your point there. I guess the #'s do kind of add up, though are a bit low.

Well what I'm mainly wondering then is why the consensus seems to be that cbet flop is a really good stat to have on your HUD. I mean, if most of the people I encounter (at least for a newbie who's played about 50k hands at a few different limits so far), I'm not exactly seeing a lot players out there who I've played thousands of hands against. So why would you want to crowd your screen real estate with a stat that is going to be sooo rarely relevant?

(Maybe this is a newbie kind of questions and most people who play a lot do in fact have that many hands in their database.)

[the other mike]

Hi -

You answered the question yourself So many stats require substantial data to be useful that most are not worth displaying in my opinion (without the necessary data that is). I would get much more use out of something like aggression factor which is multi-purpose and also requires relatively little data to be meaningful. For example, if an aggressive player cbets I don't need the cbet stat to know he was probably going to When a passive player cbets I didn't need a cbet stat to know I need to be clear on my situation if continuing.

Mike