kraada wrote:PJs Ronin wrote:Yes, that is exactly what I want to know... but only on players WHO GET TO SHOWDOWN. If a villain doesn't go to showdown then what he had doesn't matter.
I think the bolded piece is the crux of the problem. I disagree with that statement. Instead I accept this: If a villain had folded prior to or when facing my all-in bet (or raise), what he had doesn't matter.
I firmly believe that cards which called my all-in matter to my results.
Another hand example comes to mind:
We have JTs, we're in a multi-table tournament well away from the money. Due to a series of unfortunate events, we have an M of roughly 10 and a fairly bad table where the three other relevant stacks in this hand are at least three times deeper than we are. A loose weak player limps in from middle position and it's folded to us on the button. The blinds are tight and we don't expect they'll get involved much so we raise. Surprisingly both blinds and the limper call. The flop is T42 rainbow and it's checked to us. We push all-in for a little less than the size of the pot. Everyone calls. The turn is a T. The blinds check, the limper shoves. The blinds fold. The limper turns up T9o and our hand holds.
Now, your position as I understand it - and please correct me if I'm wrong - is that you don't care at all about the folded cards, and you want in this hand your EV to be around 85% because you were way ahead of T9.
Here's how I see it. All-in EV is supposed to tell us if once we'd gone in, the situation had been run an infinite number of times, what our result should be per hand. All-in EV is supposed to tell us what would have happened if the same thing had come up enough times that luck had been completely evened out.
But we got all in on the flop when there were other people. If the turn had not been a T, things could have played out very differently. If this exact situation happened over and over unless both blinds held AA, we could expect an ace to appear between between 2.2% and 8.8% (depending on how many aces they held). Do you really think in this situation - with everyone in on the turn given the prior action - an ace doesn't change the result? What about a king? A queen?
The way the board actually ran out led to people folding. Had the board run out differently, the same people may not have folded. Therefore, we can't calculate your hypothetical EV because we can't figure out what would have happened in those other cases when the board did run out differently.
Kraada-
I can't say you are wrong. Theoretically you are right.
But, PJ and I are saying that we would prefer a limited stat (excluding those) or a slightly erroneous one where they are included, over nothing.
Also, I think you need to look at a sample of 100,000 MTT and 100,000 SNG hands and let us know what % were allins that went to showdown and what % were allins that fit the 3way/ hero was the shortstack situation (and how often someone got bet out as a subset). That would let people give informed opinions on the relative frequency of these occurrences to make a more informed debate.
In the alternate, lay out the filtering or additional stats we'd need to apply this to our own DB's and we can quantify this ourselves. Without the quantification this argument will go in circles.
