New Flop CBet Stat

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New Flop CBet Stat

Postby pr1mo » Tue Dec 09, 2008 7:31 pm

FFCB_PS - Fold to Flop Continuation bet - Preflop Steal

so basically this is a combination of a few stats - it's splitting up flop continuation bet so we are in cutoff and button and have made an attempt to steal blinds raised first in preflop AND opponent is in blinds either sb or bb and has just called our preflop raise and then checked to us and we've bet and now opponent is facing our cbet.

i'm not capable enough to build the stat on my own unfortunately so i'm coming here for help :) anyone up for the task? :) please :) thanks :)
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby kraada » Tue Dec 09, 2008 7:45 pm

I'm just about to start dinner but I'll look at this after I get back.
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby kraada » Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:58 pm

I'm going to build this for cash games; for tournaments add tourney_ in front of each database field (e.g. tourney_holdem_player_statistics)

So you'll want two columns:

cnt_cbet_def_opp_when_defending_blinds

which is the number of times facing a cbet having defended the blinds

and

cnt_cbet_fold_when_defending_blinds

which is the number of times folded having faced a cbet having already defended the blinds

the stat will then be defined as 100 * cnt_cbet_fold_when_defending_blinds / cnt_cbet_def_opp_when_defending_blinds

So let's start with:

cnt_cbet_def_opp_when_defending_blinds:

sum(if[flg_blind_def_opp and cnt_p_raise = 0 and flg_f_saw and flg_f_cbet_def_opp, 1, 0])

This adds up when you:
(a) face a blind steal
(b) don't raise (I don't think you want 3bet spots here)
(c) see the flop (so you called)
(d) have a chance to defend your blinds.

Then:

cnt_cbet_fold_when_defending_blinds:

sum(if[flg_blind_def_opp and cnt_p_raise = 0 and flg_f_saw and flg_f_cbet_def_opp and enum_f_cbet_action = 'F', 1, 0]

Which is everything in the prior stat, plus you fold to the cbet.

Make sure when making the stat on the stats tab to fill in the format tab (with a title, a width, and %/.2f as the expression).
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby pr1mo » Mon Dec 15, 2008 3:59 am

hey thanks very much for your help, sorry for the late reply been busy the past few days, i went to import this into my pokertracker but it said both of the columns that i tried to make were both not valid sql. i'm not sure why this happened, i've edited lots of stats before so i know a bit of what i'm doing, i'm in the holdem cash player statistics section and i went to columns and then hit new and i have summary type as sum and then i copy pasted the formula you put in your last post but still says not valid sql. i'm doing this on a fresh install of pt3 beta 22 and i don't have any other custom stats imported...maybe i need some other stats imported before this can work? i'm not sure, maybe it's something to do with the flag part of the formula? if you try it and it works for you could you try putting it into a stat and exporting it for me and attaching and then i can try importing from your build?

thanks again for your time
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby kraada » Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:04 am

As inane as this may sound, sometimes copying and pasting doesn't work quite right, as the verifier is very finicky. Try actually typing it in and see if that works.
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby WhiteRider » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:19 pm

The other way to avoid errors is to use the 'insert' link, even for things you know the code for. If I'm struggling to get something to verify, that's what I do..
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby pr1mo » Mon Dec 22, 2008 2:02 am

didn't work with re-typing it in. but it did work when i used the insert button. here's what i created:

column 1:

cnt_cbet_def_opp_when_defending

sum(if[holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_blind_def_opp AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.cnt_p_raise = 0 AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_saw AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_cbet_def_opp, 1, 0])

column 2:

cnt_cbet_fold_when_defending_blinds

sum(if[holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_blind_def_opp AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.cnt_p_raise = 0 AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_saw AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_cbet_def_opp AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.enum_f_cbet_action ='F', 1, 0])


when i build the stat and check it in the general tab it doesn't show a lot of results. on players around 50,000 hands it only comes up with 50 instances...i checked quite a few players and all had very low results... so not sure what is wrong but it's definitely not working exactly as originally planned as there should be more results returned. any ideas on what could need changing?
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby Oakrdrzfan » Mon Dec 22, 2008 2:45 am

pr1mo wrote:didn't work with re-typing it in. but it did work when i used the insert button. here's what i created:

column 1:

cnt_cbet_def_opp_when_defending

sum(if[holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_blind_def_opp AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.cnt_p_raise = 0 AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_saw AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_cbet_def_opp, 1, 0])

column 2:

cnt_cbet_fold_when_defending_blinds

sum(if[holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_blind_def_opp AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.cnt_p_raise = 0 AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_saw AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_cbet_def_opp AND holdem_hand_player_statistics.enum_f_cbet_action ='F', 1, 0])


when i build the stat and check it in the general tab it doesn't show a lot of results. on players around 50,000 hands it only comes up with 50 instances...i checked quite a few players and all had very low results... so not sure what is wrong but it's definitely not working exactly as originally planned as there should be more results returned. any ideas on what could need changing?


Nice stat! are you going to upload to the repository?
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby kraada » Mon Dec 22, 2008 11:22 am

Primo,

There aren't going to be that many instances of this stat if you're playing at full ring. At 6-max it should certainly happen more than 1/1000 hands, but at full ring I'm not so sure.

You're only in the blinds 2/9 of the time. Assume that on average each player from UTG to the HJ raises 10% of his hands (The HJ obviously raises more, but for the simplification of the math, let's start here) . So 10% of the time, UTG raises his hand and we don't have a steal attempt (which leaves us with 90% of hands), UTG+1 raises 10% if UTG folds (leaving us with 81% of hands) continuing this, that only leaves us with 59% of hands that make it to the CO. Let's assume stealing ranges of 30%. So 17.7% of the time overall the CO steals, and 17.7% of the time the button steals.

Now, if you're in the BB and the CO steals the button or sb can play too then you don't have a blind defense opportunity. Let say they play the top 10% of their hands.

So 14.33% of the time we have a blind defense opportunity from the BB, and from the SB you have a blind defense opportunity 15.93% of the time.

So we're already down to just 3.36% of total hands where you have a blind defense opportunity. So our 50k hand player will have about 1679 blind defense opportunities.

Now, of those 1679 blind defense opportunities how many times is he calling? Say it's 15% of his hands (he reraises the top 5% and folds the bottom 80%). So now we see a flop just 252 times. Say hero donkbets sometimes, make it 20%. Now there's just 201 times that the opponent can cbet. If he checks behind sometimes, we could easily expect to see only 175 or so times that he faced a bet in this exact spot even with a 50k hand sample.

That's why some of these stats take so long to converge, the setups are very intricate. Now, I made a whole heck of a lot of assumptions along the way, and it is possible there's something wrong that I don't see. Still, over a 50k hand sample, I'd be surprised to see more than 300 or 400 opportunities for him. Also, this table never limps in EP or MP. If there's an EP/MP limp that removes a chance to steal. That could easily drop the 175 times estimate even further depending on how often people limp. If the limpers take out a little more than 1/3 of the steal opportunities we're down to just 100 opportunities right there . . .
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Re: New Flop CBet Stat

Postby pr1mo » Mon Dec 22, 2008 5:05 pm

Oakrdrzfan wrote:Nice stat! are you going to upload to the repository?


no plans on doing that at the moment, but if you would like me to send it to you then pm me your email address and i'll send you the stat to import.
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