kraada wrote:It's not the case because someone called the first all-in and we do not know his cards. Pretending hands that called the all-in and later folded do not count in the hand at all ends up introducing a bias. I agree it's less obvious in this case but a more obvious case is this: Imagine A goes all in and B and C both call. The flop comes. B bets and C folds. In this case if we calculate A vs B's equity preflop it's discounting the equity C had but gave up after seeing the flop. For more detail on these calculations see this guide.
I understand this is not intuitive but we have consulted the top mathematical poker minds and were advised that even in the case you have shown, calculating adjusted equity would result in a long term introduction of error.
Problems Accounting for Multi-Way Pots
The problem that both Hold’em Manager and PokerTracker 3 have with accounting for multi-way pots has to do with unknown holecards. In order to make an accurate “EV” (results-oriented) calculation, the software must know the holecards of all players in the hand at the time Hero went all-in — even the holecards of the hands that were folded.
PokerTracker 3, on the other hand, does the opposite and does not account for this hand at all for the purposes of calculating All-In EV, and instead only makes the “EV” adjustment when all holecards of callers are known. Unfortunately, this method is not quite optimal either, as accounting for multi-way pots in which all cards are known without accounting for multi-way pots in which hands are folded should result in a smaller bias in the other direction (i.e., the user should theoretically appear slightly lucky rather than very unlucky), but a bias nonetheless.
Summary: 1) It’s not EV, and 2) Unless you only play heads up, the stat doesn’t work — no matter what software you use.
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