variance

[seadog]

Help me win over an argument at other forums, I asked a simple question about running bad and how long it can last, I have 2.5 million hands in my database and have noticed draws hit very little then norm, in fact flush draws on flop hit turn(when we see turn)13.5% and hit river(when we see river) 13.5%
and OESD are even worse, they hit turn 10.7% and hit river just 12.6%.
Now how much can that affect one's winrate, I went from winningn8BBs/100 to losing 6BBs/100

here is a copy of leak tracker, in this database I only have 1.5 million hands
AND, can we use this leak tracker to justify our run bad/good??

I've ran bad before, but not this bad EVER!!!!
How can I explain to people that good players can be losing players when they run bad? People seem to think if you are losing over 15K hands you are doing something wrong, I disagree... I see many good players online losing on a regular basis and bad players winning more then they should.
Premiums are 52 buy-ins below EV according to PT4, combo draws another 20 buy-ins, and if you add draws aren't hitting, this spells disaster for anybody, even the great Phil Hellmuth, am I Right, dang righ, I'm right

I have comments saying, well you hit flush 19% or OESD 18% because of what other may be holding your outs, card removal effect, I agree somewhat, but I doubt they hold my outs EVERY time....
Thanks for your time

[Flag_Hippo]

Hitting draws less often than average will impact on winrate since when you make big hands you win more but beyond that it's difficult to be more specific and quantify that with a number. You can filter to and analyse these hands in other reports to see how many hands in your database this relates to however you should note that 'Straights' on the bell curve includes gutshots and double gutters as well as OESDs.

[seadog]

you win more but beyond that it's difficult to be more specific and quantify that with a number

Ok, thanks, was hoping there was some kind of magic formula that I would be able to explain to nay sayers lol

I don't use the bell curve as a guide for hitting draws, I use filter "flush draws on flop", see how many flush draws I hit holding two suited cards then add filter "made hands" on turn. Same for OESD.

Thanks for your time

[seadog]

Ok, just for I understand the leak tracker thingy-ma-gooey

It has NOTHING to do with you hitting your draws, but, more to do how often you get to showdown with said made hand?????

[Flag_Hippo]

The bell curve has nothing to do with showdown and is displaying how often your draws hit and how often you flop sets:

Flushes - Frequency of turn/river flushes given that you had a flush draw on the prior street.

Straights - Frequency of turn/river straights given that you had a straight draw on the prior street.

Sets - Frequency of flopped sets (including full houses and quads).

If you click the green question mark icon on that page there is a short tutorial video on how this graph works and see here for a breakdown of how many players would end up in each category given full information.