All In Adj. BB Won EV Incorrect?

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All In Adj. BB Won EV Incorrect?

Postby AcesHigh6991 » Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:49 pm

Hi Everyone,

I had this hand today:

MTT: $0.55 Bounty Builder

Blinds: 140/70
Ante: 21

Pre-Flop:
Dealt to Hero (3722 Chips) UTG+1 [Q :diamond: ] [Q :spade: ]

1 fold, Hero Raises to 294, 1 call, 2 folds, 2 calls, 1 fold, 1 call

Pot: 1,729

Flop: [6 :heart: ] [2 :diamond: ] [T :spade: ]

BB leads 840, Hero Shoves 3428, Villain 1 calls, 1 fold, Villain 2 calls, BB folds

(I think BB lead folding is causing the issue with PT4)

Pot: 12,853

Turn: [5 :spade: ]
Villain 1 Check, Villain 2 Shoves 6350, Villain 1 calls

River: [K :diamond: ]

Showdown:

Villain 1: shows [K :club: T :diamond: ] (two pair, Kings and Tens)

Villain 2: shows [A :club T :club] (a pair of Tens)

Hero: shows [Q :spade: Q :diamond: ] (a pair of Queens)

So here, I get it in on the flop over a raise from the BB, 2 villains call and the BB raiser folds. The 2 other villains get it in on the turn yet my graph looks like this: https://gyazo.com/c6fad1f2a9211324777fcb535e99a7f3

In this spot, my EV graph goes from +7 BB, to -20BB (EV loss of 27), when I should have at minimum an EV of +38BB (If we are counting my Equity on the flop), higher if we are going off of my EV on the turn, when the 2 villains get their chips in.

Of course it is not a major breaking issue, but I would like my graph to be as accurate as possible so I have a decent idea as to whether I am getting it in good over a decent period. While it might not change much, it is a 65BB difference in EV, which over my smaller sample, does make a difference, and then leads my BB/100 stats to be horribly inaccurate.

Is there any way I can fix this or alter the data manually so the graph can be an accurate representation of the hand and accurately affect the results I am going over?

Thank you.
AcesHigh6991
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:32 pm

Re: All In Adj. BB Won EV Incorrect?

Postby Flag_Hippo » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:54 am

When further actions are possible after more information becomes available (after the turn is dealt in your example) then the players who can act have further choices, and only the stronger hands are likely to get to showdown (with weaker hands folding) and this would introduce a bias against you in the results therefore any hands where players have the opportunity to act after another street is dealt following an all-in are excluded from the equity adjusted calculations (if you look at your graph the gap between your actual line and net adjusted line stays constant).
Flag_Hippo
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