All-In Adj BB for PLO8 is incorrect.

[wloa]

I have 68% equity when it all goes in MW. I lose on the river and it shows up as -23.46bb All-In Adj BB in my reports. I've attached the screen shot of the All-In Adj BB in Reports and a screenshot of the equities from ProPokerTools.

Here's the hand text:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 75/150 PL Hi/Lo (6 max) - Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 111.83 BB (VPIP: 38.27, PFR: 17.28, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 83)
UTG: 155.11 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP: 106.97 BB (VPIP: 33.24, PFR: 4.83, 3Bet Preflop: 2.26, Hands: 1,825)
Hero (CO): 99.84 BB
BTN: 21.51 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 16)
SB: 38.45 BB (VPIP: 32.89, PFR: 21.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 154)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2d 5c Ac Qc
UTG calls 1 BB, MP calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 4.5 BB, UTG calls 4.5 BB, MP calls 4.5 BB

Flop : (22.5 BB, 4 players) Qs 5d 3h
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets 22.5 BB, BB calls 22.5 BB, fold, MP calls 22.5 BB

Turn : (90 BB, 3 players) 3c
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 71.84 BB and is all-in, BB calls 71.84 BB, MP calls 71.84 BB

River : (305.52 BB, 3 players) 6d
BB bets 11.99 BB and is all-in, MP calls 7.13 BB and is all-in

BB shows As 6s 4c 6h (High: Full House, Sixes full of Threes, Low: 6543A)

Main Pot [305.52 BB]: (Pre 35%, Flop 19%, Turn 18%)
Side Pot [14.27 BB]: (Pre 49%, Flop 47%, Turn 68%)

MP shows Ad 2s Td 4h (High: Straight, Six High, Low: 6532A)

Main Pot [305.52 BB]: (Pre 31%, Flop 28%, Turn 14%)
Side Pot [14.27 BB]: (Pre 51%, Flop 53%, Turn 32%)

Hero shows 2d 5c Ac Qc (High: Two Pair, Queens and Fives, Low: 6532A)

Main Pot [305.52 BB]: (Pre 34%, Flop 53%, Turn 68%)

BB wins 159.89 BB
MP wins 83.51 BB
Hero wins 76.38 BB

[wloa]

any ideas on this? Is it bc the other players are not All-In on the turn but I am and there's a bet on the River when I am already All-In?

[Flag_Hippo]

In a hand like this where there was further action on another street after an all-in then PokerTracker 4 does not calculate adjusted equity as it introduces a bias in the results. When all-in adjusted equity is not calculated the net adjusted result just matches the actual result (so that the net adjusted graph follows your actual result - it only diverges one way or the other when all-in equity is calculated).

[wloa]

In a hand like this where there was further action on another street after an all-in then PokerTracker 4 does not calculate adjusted equity as it introduces a bias in the results. When all-in adjusted equity is not calculated the net adjusted result just matches the actual result (so that the net adjusted graph follows your actual result - it only diverges one way or the other when all-in equity is calculated).

This is clearly an incorrect way to adjust for the bias described in the article for a few reasons. By trying to offset one bias you create another bias.

1) Cards are known for the 3 players involved in the pot. The bias that is referred to in the article refers to situations where one of the players cards are unknown.
2) The River bet is 7.13bb into a 305.52bb pot. This is 2% of the pot.
3) PT4 has my equity when I'm All-In correct at 68%. Why would this not be adjusted for All-In Adj BB EV?

I have attached a screenshot of a spreadsheet which shows the correct All-In Adj BB, which should be 107.9bb (green cell). The incorrect All-In Adj BB is in red at -23.46.

I suggest you look into this deeper and adjust the algorithm for this stat.

The All-In Adj BB is after the river comes when there is a 2% pot bet, which makes zero sense along with the fact that all the players cards are known.

[wloa]

any further comments on this? the algorithm is incorrect and the bias is a non-issue bc the hands are known. Why can't the stat adjust for this?

[Flag_Hippo]

With regards to the example hand you have posted I will forward your feedback to the development team to be considered however at this time all hands where players have the opportunity to act after another street is dealt following an all-in are excluded from adjusted equity calculations. When further actions are possible after more information becomes available then the players who can act have further choices, and only the stronger hands are likely to get to showdown (with weaker hands folding). If net adjusted results were only calculated when no-one folds, that will mean that this will be for hands where the players generally had stronger hands which introduces a bias.