Dynamic stats

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Dynamic stats

Postby Onefortheroad » Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:12 pm

Problem with current stats are that they cannot show when villain changes behaviour.
We need to know how he behaved last x observations in that spot.
If it takes 100 observations to find that he have fold to steal at 90% then we start using that against him. That’s why we want the stat in the first place. Now we start stealing every hand because 90% fold is plus EV. After 10 hands he starts noticing that we steal every hand and he begins to adjust. Now he stops folding and starts reraising us every time. How will that change his stats? Not much, since it is in comparison to to the initial bulk of observations.
We started 100 observations with 90 folds = 90% fold.
10 hands where we exploit it. 110 hands, still with the same fold % so now 110 hands and 99 folds.
Then he catches on to it and starts playing back every hand from now on.
After 10 more hands where he stopped folding we have 120 observations with 99 folds = 83%
That still looks like plus EV but it isn’t. The stat is now totally misleading because the real value is 0% since he will now play back every hand.

Poker is a game of adaption so no static stats will help anything. Session stats are closer but still not the real picture. We want to see his current state of adaption to our play or the table. So that we can adapt to his adaption to us.
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Re: Dynamic stats

Postby tiltmonster12 » Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:20 am

maybe duplicate your hud profile but set the second profile no only report the last 20 or so hands. And while playing, when you suspect adjustment, you can change to that profile. Like this you can compare life time stats to current session stats to X number of last hands stats. I think this might be a good work around
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