Is Luck Bell Curve working Fine? Extreme Samples

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Is Luck Bell Curve working Fine? Extreme Samples

Postby parraka » Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:23 am

Hello, me and one friend are having the sensation of running really awful, 1. under EV, 2. with coolers/setups and we decided to take a look to Bell Curve to see how is going hitting Sets, Flush and Straights and the results are pretty suck.

This is my Luck Bell Curve 210 K Hands:

Image

For make the things even funnier im running 1 bb/100 under EV less than i should have on this simple 9.8 EV 8.9 REAL. And Receiving 2.25% less than i should AA-QQ, AA 3.2%.

And this one from my Friends 97K Hands:

Image

The case is that for me both of ours results look quite extreme, is this possible? This is what it makes me think that maybe is not working fine :S
If you are able to confirm that is working fine nowadays it will help me to be more confident about my game :)

If you want to improve this Luck Bell Curve it would be really simple to add how you get Dealt Preflop with AA-QQ or something you like :)
parraka
 
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Re: Is Luck Bell Curve working Fine? Extreme Samples

Postby Flag_Hippo » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:02 am

If you click the green question mark icon on that page there is a short tutorial video on how that graph works. Although you're both being being unlucky the results aren't all that unlikely - see here for a breakdown of how many players would end up in each category if we had full information.
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Re: Is Luck Bell Curve working Fine? Extreme Samples

Postby parraka » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:02 pm

Then its working fine, i guess. Its just simply that we are hitting less Sets, Straights and Flush than we should. Have all of them behind normal is hard, talking about probability. I guess less than 10% :S, is that correct? Am I watching it properly?
parraka
 
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Re: Is Luck Bell Curve working Fine? Extreme Samples

Postby Flag_Hippo » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:46 am

I wouldn't know the % of that however you can check your actual percentages in PokerTracker 4 for flopping sets and hitting flop and turn draws. There is a 'Set % (x/y)' custom stat available in the Download Warehouse if you want to see your flopped set % and the total number of times/opportunities in your reports. As the stat was built for PokerTracker 3 you will need to change the dropdown when importing from .pt4stat to .pt3stat in order to see the file in the chooser window. To review your data for straight/flush draws you can try something like this or build custom stats to display that information for you. See this guide for the basics on custom statistics creation and this guide for a deeper walkthrough. The latter was written for PokerTracker 3 but the techniques all apply to PokerTracker 4, the interface is just slightly different.
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