Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

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Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby xzin » Sat Dec 17, 2011 6:43 pm

I'm not sure how the luck adjusted graph is supposed the work for HUSNGs exactly, but it's working differently from what I'm used to.
Chips won per Hands PT4 EV graph is similar to HEM's Cash Won Per Tournament Graph, which is correct in my opinion. However the Cash Won Per Tournament PT4 is different from these, while you would expect it to be similar to them, at least in HUSNGs.
Attachments
Chips Won over Hands Played PT4 .png
Chips Won in Tournaments Played PT4
Won HEM.png
Cash Won Per Tournament HEM1 Graph
Prizes Won over Tournaments Played PT4.png
Cash Won Per Tournament PT4 Graph
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby xzin » Sat Dec 17, 2011 7:05 pm

I just wanted to add that since in HUSNGs the chips value is a percentage of the cash prize and doesn't change during the match (There are no ICM situations) the "Chips won over hands EV" graph and "Prizes won over Tournaments EV" graph should be identical.
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby xzin » Sun Dec 18, 2011 10:55 am

Also another problem regarding EV. If you add the "ROI Adjusted" stat to your graph information box, all the stats in the box are messed up. Also trying to use the stat in the statistics tab is not working correctly. The stats seems to show each tournament individually.
Attachments
ROI % Adjusted.png
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby kraada » Sun Dec 18, 2011 11:00 am

I'll make sure the developer who worked on these functions sees this thread - he knows a lot more about how the internals of these things work than I do.
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby Yogi Rob » Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:43 pm

You're right that ICM doesn't really apply for a winner take all 2 player tourney, but the Net Adjusted for Tourneys is a very different stat than what we do on a per-hand basis.

1. For an x-axis Hands chart, net adjusted is based on the all-ins of each and every hand.

2. For an x-axis Tourney Chart, it's based on your ICM value of the expected chip outcome of your final hand of the tourney, whether or not you were actually involved in the all-in of that hand.

I agree that for heads up, (1) is the more important stat.

I think a stat can be created to overlay a Tourney/Hands Played/Prizes to get a chart as you would like. If you always play at one site, and you know x chips = y money it can be done quite easily.

The bad info stat box is something we'll fix.

Thanks for bringing this to our attention.
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby Voyeurism » Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:13 pm

I think there are further problems with the "Net adjusted" line/stat for STTs. See the attached "STT Results.png" file.

STT Results.png


My understanding of the way this should work is that once I am in the money in an STT (3 players left), the "My C Net Adjusted" should never be lower than the third place prize money - even if I have 0% equity in the pot when the money goes in, the very worst I can do is bust and take third place. Unfortuantely this doesn't seem to be how it works in PT4 - see Tournament #494914375 in the attached image (the 10th line from the top) which shows that although I finished third I apparently had a negative £ expectation on the last hand. There was nothing funny about the final hand - it started with 3 players (so already in the money) and I was the only player to bust. Hand history is in the spoiler.

Spoiler: show
Code: Select all
PokerStars - $3.16+$0.34|200/400 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 5,600.00
SB: 6,275.00
Hero (BB): 1,625.00

BTN posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 200.00, Hero posts BB 400.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 675.00) Hero has 7c 7h

fold, SB raises to 6,250.00 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,200.00 and is all-in

Flop: (3275.00, 2 players) Tc 4d 6d

Turn: (3275.00, 2 players) Ah

River: (3275.00, 2 players) 9d

SB shows 9s 8d (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 46%, Flop 33%, Turn 18%)
Hero shows 7c 7h (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 54%, Flop 67%, Turn 82%)
SB wins 3,275.00


Similarly, it seems that every time I bust out of the money (including on the bubble) the "My C Net Adjusted" column shows -£2.25 which I assume is the tournament buyin of $3.50 converted to £ Sterling. While this would be correct if I had 0% equity in the final hand, in the majority of these tournaments this was not the case (most of the time the money goes in preflop) so I should always have some $ equity in the tournament.

Obviously this makes the graph look pretty ridiculous.
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby WhiteRider » Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:31 am

Please attach the full original hand history and summary files for that tournament (and any other examples, you can compress them into a single upload) to a Support Ticket and include a link to this thread so that we can check this out. Please post your ticket number here too.
Thanks.
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby Voyeurism » Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:01 pm

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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby kraada » Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:20 pm

Thanks, we appreciate it.
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Re: Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

Postby Yogi Rob » Fri Jan 06, 2012 3:06 pm

A prize detection bug that affected this group of tourneys has just been fixed. I'm sure this is affecting others too. You'll see correct results in the upcoming version of pt4. Thanks a lot for bringing this to our attention.
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